Title : An Analysis of the Relationship between Gold Price and US Dollar Exchange Rate in Myanmar

Keywords : Gold price, US dollar exchange rate, Negative relationship

Authors : CHO CHO ZAW

Publication date : 2018-12-01

Description : The aim of this research was to study the relationship between foreign exchange rate and gold price of Myanmar. Accordingly, this study examines the trends of gold price and US dollar from April 2014 to March 2018 in Myanmar. Only secondary data were used in the study and there comprise of daily closing gold price and US dollar exchange rate. Descriptive statistics and correlation coefficient was used to analyze the relationship between gold price and US dollar exchange rate for study period. Granger causality model was used to explore whether gold price and US dollar exchange rate cause with each other. Negative relationship was found between gold price and US dollar exchange rate. It also was found that causality have between gold price and US dollar exchange rate mutually. It is found that US dollar is gradually appreciate during the study period. Appreciation of US dollar may be able to provided export-led-growth policy for development in Myanmar. Central Bank should always monitor not only situation of foreign exchange market but also authorized dealers in the market. Financial planners should always monitor economic and political situation which can affect on US dollar in Myanmar to assess investment opportunities.